A Man with a Plan

How Mike Lowell pulled his way into a big fat contract.

I was looking at some Balls in Play numbers for Mike Lowell, courtesy of Dan Fox's BIPChart 2.5.

In my first post, I talked about the intimate link between Lowell's 2007 success and the Green Monster. Here's what Lowell did on balls in the air to left versus the right-handed league average for 2003-2007:

On fly balls to left (PERCENT/AVG/SLG):

League: 28%/.443/1.455

Lowell: 43%/.425/1.238



On line drives to left:

League: 42.7%/.725/1.100

Lowell: 54.3%/.807/1.105 on liners.


The numbers make it look like the Monster helped a couple of line drives turn into hits for Lowell, but that it actually hurt him a little on fly balls. What gives?

Well, these numbers don't give the whole picture. For one thing, it's highly likely that the home/road splits would look a lot different from these aggregates, based on nothing more than the visual evidence of the spray charts (all but two of Lowell's extra-base hits came in left and left-center). Too bad there's no data on this that I can find (any volunteers?).

But way more importantly, one has to remember that Lowell is basically a league average hitter (.280 career AVG including '07), and that he didn't see dramatic improvements in his LD% from '05 to '07 (18.3%, 21.1%, and 20% respectively.)

The thing that did change dramatically was both the raw number and the percentage of balls he put in the air to left. His worst year, '05 in Florida, he hit flyballs to left at a league average rate and was rewarded with a miserable .255 cBA (contact batting average) there. He hit slightly more LDs than average to left, but again, was rewarded with a below average .700 cBA. Now that was an unlucky year no doubt, but still.

Fast forward to '07. If Lowell had hit the same total number of fly balls and line drives, but with the spray chart of a league average rightie, you'd expect him to hit 52 flyballs to left; he actually hit 80. You'd expect him to hit 44 line drives to left, he actually hit 57. In other words, Lowell hit a net total of 41 more balls to left than average. The two years before that?


2006
FB(expected/actual): 45/60, LD(exp./act.): 50/54, Net: +19

2005
FB: 48/51, LD: 39/40, Net: +4



It's true that Lowell has always been a pull hitter (numbers courtesty of Sean Campion).



The questions is, is Lowell's natural swing just a perfect fit for Fenway? Or is this a man with a plan?